The twilight years
Yes, the Switch has been a grand success for Nintendo but
nothing lasts forever. The downward turn has started. Sales have been going down. Nintendo's recent earnings report for thefiscal year 2022-2023 says all. Consoles sales declined by 22% and they expect
it to decline by a further 16.5%. And that's their optimistic
assessment.
The golden years are behind the Switch and it's becoming
clearer and clearer that Nintendo is moving towards a new console. The question
I have now is: what will they do with the Switch in the meantime? What has the console still left in it before its
successor launches?
Let's dive in.
Hardware
I want to
approach this article by dividing it into two sections: the hardware and the
software. Of these two, the hardware discussion will be over the quickest. Two
strategies people were discussing in regards to how Nintendo could push more
consoles were a new SKU (those Switch Pro rumours will never die!) and/or a
price drop. Both options got addressed during that latest Nintendo
financial report.
When
discussing their 2023-2024 sales forecast, Nintendo President Shuntaro Furukawa
stated their forecast for the fiscal year, 15 million Switch consoles, doesn´t
include any new hardware. Not quite the confirmation that we won´t see the
Switch´s successor or another revision coming this year, they could
still reveal something later and adjust their forecast but I don´t think that is the intent. I think they explicitly stated this
knowing that the question about new hardware would come and to make clear that it wouldn't be happening.
Furukawa
also stressed that no price drop for the Switch hardware is in the cards. The
increased resource and manufacturing costs make this a no-go. Even with 'old'
components the cost for Nintendo remains high like everything and they aren't going to cut into
their own profit margins. Nintendo is the company that likes to make a profit
on both software and hardware after all.
No new
Switch-related hardware, its successor or a revision (as if) until May 2024 at
the earliest. Don´t think they will hit that 15 million mark without another
big game that´ll push another special edition or a price, but I digress.
Software
Now we are getting into the nitty-gritty. The software. The games. 2023 is looking rather empty at the moment. Their big tent-pole release, The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, is now out. This leaves only Pikmin 4 and Everybody 1-2-Switch! on the calendar. I don't see either setting the charts on fire. Pikmin are great games, but with a niche appeal and Everybody 1-2-Switch! is a very much a 'whatever' game. A game for the casuals and one that Nintendo seems to have no confidence in and are just pushing out so they can be done with it. Metroid Prime 4 is still in the works but has no release date or even a release window. Could very well end up as a 2024 title or even a title on the new platform, cross-release or otherwise.
At this moment, from Nintendo itself, the rest of 2023 is looking like a DLC year. We have the last 2 waves of the Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Booster Course Pass and at the very least one wave of the Splatoon 3 and Pokémon Scarlett & Violet expansion passes. With the release of Xenoblade Chronicles 3: Future Redeemed earlier in April, that's DLC for four Nintendo titles in 2023. That's a lot, especially for a company that typically hasn't been as DLC-savvy as the rest of the industry.
All of this DLC is very much
intentional. The Switch's successor is coming and Nintendo have talked a lot in
the past about wanting to launch it with a strong 1st year line-up. One
of the reasons for the Switch's success was just that after all. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild with Mario Kart 8
Deluxe, Splatoon 3 and Super Mario Odyssey made the console irresistible to pick up.
Nintendo knows this as well and is certainly developing some big-name titles for early in their next console life. This means that the amount 'big' new titles are surely slowing down. They're saving those for the 'Switch 2' or whatever that next console ends up being. What do you put on your current console in the meantime? More niche titles, 3rd party stuff, indies and easier to develop stuff like DLC, ports, remakes/remasters etc.
 |
| All the currently planed releases for 2023 by Nitnendo itself. Lots of DLC, as you can see. |
Pikmin 4, Hollow Knight and Baten Kaitos I & II HD Remaster just to name a few of the stuff that falls into these categories that we know about as of now. The stuff we don't know about? Well, we don't know about that. However, I do want to speculate on those titles. The rumour mill never stops after all.
Early in the life of the Switch ., Nintendo ported many of its self-published titles from the Wii U, the ones that didn't just get a flat-out sequel, to the console. A sensible move. They were relatively cheap to port over and fill gaps in the release schedule while giving these great games a 2nd leash on life.From these Wii U games, there are still 4 noteworthy titles that haven't made their way on to the Switch. Xenoblade Chronicles X, Star Fox Zero and the two Zelda remasters: Wind Waker HD and Twilight Princess HD.
Star Fox Zero didn't do well so I'm not expecting that one to ever make it over. When it comes to Xenoblade Chronicles X I don't see it on the Switch either. Monolith Soft president Tetsuya Takahashi has said he would like the game on Switch but also said that he expected it would be a difficult game to port due to its size and because he would like to implement more than a few changes and additions. That would make the game more costly to get on the Switch.
The two Zelda remasters have been rumoured for years now. Rumours or not, I can see it happening. Zelda is riding high right now and these two titles, perhaps in a dual pack, perhaps as separate 40,- shadow drops, would keep the momentum going. I certainly wouldn't complain. Twilight Princess is my favourite Zelda title and I never got the chance to play Wind Waker. Speaking of Metroid Prime: Remastered; I wouldn't be surprised if we get its two sequels on the Switch before Metroid Prime 4 hits.
There is more stuff but this is where I'll leave it for now. My thoughts are clear: lots of ports and such are what I expect from these last few Switch years.
The Cross-Gen Period
OK, I lied. There is one more header. During writing it occurred to me that making a piece about what the Nintendo Switch still has left in the tank before it's discontinued would need to include the potential cross-gen period. The time when the Switch and its successor are both on the market and getting support.
Will we get a cross-gen period? I do think we will. Nearly all their consoles since the 2000s have had some sort of cross-gen period, save for the Wii U. If the new console is a ´Switch 2´, assuming there will be at least some titles launching for both systems (Metroid Prime 4?), they can keep the Switch around for a year or two as the cheaper option. If the next console is another pivot, they won't pair it as they did with the GameBoy/GameBoy Colour, Wii/Wii U etc, the Switch can remain as their handheld/more traditional SKU.
Whatever the scenario cutting off the life of a successful console while entering a new risky venture doesn't seem like a good idea. Even if the popularity of said console is waning.
..........
So, to recap. How do I think will the final few years of the Switch look before it rides of into the sunset never to be seen again? Hardware-wise, nothing will change. Perhaps we'll see one or two more special editons but there will not be any new SKU's or any price-cuts. For the software I think it'll be mostly niche and remakes/remaster/ports from Nintendo themselves, relying on these and 3rd parties to keep the system alive while they focus on development of the next console. And finally, for the cross-gen period, I suspect the console will stick around for at least a year or two as a cheaper option with some games releasing for it and its successor.
That's my take at least. Let's see what will actually happen.
High quality content good job
ReplyDeleteThank you so much for the kind words!
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